VIC: Fifteen seats at stake as ALP faces uphill battle

AAP General News (Australia)
08-24-1999
VIC: Fifteen seats at stake as ALP faces uphill battle

By Krista Hughes, State Political Correspondent

MELBOURNE, Aug 24 AAP - Fifteen seats stand between the Labor Party and government in
Victoria.

With 25 days to go until the September 18 election, that's about one electorate to win
every two days.

The feat is not unprecedented: the coalition pulled off a similar coup in 1992, when it
achieved a 5.77 per cent swing and 19 extra seats to win government from the embattled ALP.

But opinion polls indicate the government has little cause for concern, despite Premier
Jeff Kennett's repeated statements that it will take nothing for granted.

The main election issues shaping up are:

* Police numbers and crime on the back of a 3.6 per cent rise in the crime rate;

* Public hospitals and drugs, with Labor pushing its plan for five safe injecting rooms and
the partial decriminalisation of marijuana.

The government has yet to release detailed policies but has its can-do image and economic
achievements to remind voters of who is the safer option.

Yesterday's announcement of funding for the Geelong Road will give the government a boost
but the opening of City Link could be a rogue factor, with tolls likely to bite before the
election date.

For its part, Labor will emphasise its break with the past, its new policy platform and
team of fresh faces such as former Uniting Church spokeswoman Bronwyn Pike, civil libertarian
Joseph O'Reilly, and lawyer Stuart Morris.

In theory, the ALP's Steve Bracks needs at least a 5.3 per cent swing in voter support
across the state to become the next premier.

It's far short of the 15.8 per cent swing the ALP achieved in 1997 to wrest the blue-ribbon
seat of Mitcham from the Liberals at a by-election, yet would require a doubling of the 2.8
per cent it won in the 1996 state poll.

But the swing means nothing unless it translates into MPs, and Labor needs to add 15 to its
current crop of 30 to win a majority.

It will also have to watch the eastern suburbs outpost of Mitcham and its own marginal
seats such as Ivanhoe and Werribee, where the Liberals have endorsed David McLaren, the local
mayor during the toxic waste dump controversy.

The 18-odd government seats in the firing line, which would require a 5.5 per cent swing or
less to fall to the ALP, are concentrated in Melbourne's south-east and around the regional
centres of Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong.

The ALP already holds Bendigo West and Geelong North, giving it a head start on Bendigo
East, Ripon and Bellarine.

In Geelong, Housing Minister Ann Henderson will face a strong challenger in Ian Tresize,
son of former Labor minister and footballer Neil "Nipper" Tresize.

Both Ballarat seats will be hotly contested, with only 0.06 per cent needed to topple
Ballarat East and 1.39 per cent for West, where local mayor Judy Verlin is taking over from
the retiring Paul Jenkins.

In Melbourne, Liberal Bernie Finn's seat of Tullamarine could be adversely affected by City
Link tolls, while on the other side of town, Labor's wish-list includes Prahran, Oakleigh,
Bentleigh and Mordialloc.

The government will also be keen to regain Carrum, a traditional Labor seat lost to the
coalition at the 1996 election.

The government also has plans to topple independent MPs Russell Savage (Mildura) and Susan
Davies (Gippsland West), who goes to her first general election after wresting the seat from
the Liberals at a 1997 by-election with just a 0.3 per cent margin.

The Liberal and National party coalition partners will stand rival candidates in five
electorates, including the two independent-held seats.

In the state's west, the Nationals have picked former Geelong AFL player Paul Couch to
stand in retiring former (Liberal) minister Ian Smith's seat of Polwarth, and the Liberals
will run candidates against Nationals' Hugh Delahunty in Wimmera and Greg Walsh in
Warrnambool.

AAP kmh/jlw/er/jnb

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